Possible Clues:

• It's not meant to be a double century I make a hole in
• Unforseen misfortune
• Misfortune I had, in a manner of speaking
• Leader in West ousted by a fluke
• It's unfortunate, happening to get an identification in that accent
• Insured event
• Unexpected and unplanned event
• Dice can't change your bad luck
• I would, in a grave sign perhaps, find misfortune
• Chance of identification determined by tone of voice